To assist CG users assess Ralph Nader's impact on the 2004 presidential election campaign, we offer this comprehensive spreadsheet of historical vote performance.

Recent pro-Nader spin is that his 2000 Florida votes were largely comprised of non-Democrat Party registered voters and that in 2004 Nader will draw more votes from Bush than the Democrat Party Nominee (e.g. Senator John Kerry, D-MA). This is pure spin designed to blunt Democrat Party condemnation of a Nader '04 presidential candidacy.

At a minimum, if Nader had not been on the ballot in Florida and New Hampshire a plurality of his votes would have gone to Gore. Gore would have won both states and been sworn in as the 43rd POTUS.

Once you get past the hallucinations that any significant number of Nader voters could possibly be Bush voters, it is interesting to ponder what effect Nader will have in this upcoming election cycle.

The question is, will Nader get traction?

The spreadsheet prepared by Capitol Grilling puts this in perspective. Clearly, any traction Nader gets will have a tremendous effect upon the national political struggle between the two parties. There are arguments about ballot access in all fifty states. But, that's irrelevant. Nader needs ballot access in only one state: Florida. So, the stakes are pretty high.

What makes this a fascinating study is the states are ranked by margin of victory per congressional district. For example, take Florida: with the above assumptions that Nader's votes go Kerry, Bush gets the same number of votes as '00, and everything else being equal, Kerry wins FL by just 3100 votes per congressional district. If you've been involved in politics very long, 3100 votes per congressional district is not a lot, but when you consider it is 79,000 votes for the entire state, it gives you a lot to think about. It also gives you a great visual picture of how this upcoming presidential race is really not a national race, but a battle that will be fought in only 10-15 states.

This spreadsheet also shows how narrowly the country is divided. So, the talking heads are indeed correct when they repeat said cliché ad nauseum. But, the talking heads are wrong about how much of an advantage President Bush has, due to his cash resources. Frankly the deck is stacked against him. Nader getting traction, however, evens out the deck.

To add to the point that the President is at a disadvantage, Kerry's margin of victory for his top eight states (FL, IA, NH, NM, WI, PA, OR, MI) is 900,000 votes (or 11,000 per congressional district). By contract, Bush's margin of victory in his eight states (NV, OH, MO, TN, AZ, CO, AR, WV is much less: 405,000 votes (or 6,600 per congressional district).

The odds are clearly not stacked in the President's favor. That's why the "Nader effect" is extremely important. (As an aside, keep an eye on which Republican C4 i.e. non-profit organization works to get Nader on the ballot). So, check it out for yourself and come to your own conclusion. One thing is for sure, this election is going to be very interesting to watch, because it will be so hard-fought in the targeted states. Another thing: this spreadsheet puts you in the driver's seat in terms of arm-chair quarterbacking.

Happy Campaigning,
Political Hack